My Hypothetical Post - to Win Something From my Mom

      My mom just posted her 600th (601st really) entry on her blog. In it she mentions a giveaway:

Now about the give away...I do enjoy creating things and posting about some of the things that I make. As I thought about a give away to celebrate my 600th post, I have decided to offer three lucky readers their choice of a gift from 1 of the 3 different areas of my creative side. 1) my kitchen, 2) my sewing room, 3) my craft area.
Just leave a comment about something you would like me to create for you from one of the three areas. That will give you one entry. You will get another entry if you put a link on your blog about this give away. You have the opportunity for a 3rd chance to win if someone mentions you when they comment. I will randomly choose the winners on July 19th, 2010. Then I will get started on creating something for my 3 winners.

     To which I commented the following:
I saw Jeri Dawn's post - so here I am! I want a carrot cake with cream cheese frosting or banana-chocolate chip-oatmeal cookies!

I got to thinking about how one could win this thing. The thought process went something like this:

If I comment and no one else does, I win! (Too late for that.)

Chances are at least 3 other people will comment though, so I would only have a 75% chance of winning! (This had already happened before I formulated my answer.)

However, if I do a post in my blog, and nobody else does then I have a 90% chance. (Jeri Dawn has already done a post.)

But if she hadn't and if someone sees my hypothetical post and mentions me in a comment, then they have a chance and I pick up another chance - leaving me around 89%, but if they don't mention me, then I'm at 80% - still better than the original 75%. But if more people see my hypothetical post and don't mention it, my chances just keep getting worse: 2=71%, 3=64%, 4=58%, etc.

However, if they all (even millions) mention me, it will approach 87.5% - so the person with the best chance will be the person who has a blog that no one reads, posts and then has no one comment because of their post.

Hmm, maybe I should do it?

Of course Cindy (colds1) goes ahead and throws a wrench in my thought process by giving her winnings to Jeri Dawn. Now what are the odds of that?


     So, here's to no one else entering!